The Barrel attended a speech in New York by Bill McKibben, an environmentalist and author who has been sounding the alarm over global warming for over 20 years.
In his presentation, McKibben cited a study by NASA scientist James Hansen, which called 350 parts per million as the safe upper limit for atmospheric carbon dioxide. That is far lower than previous estimates of 450 ppm, which is what most environmental groups had been calling for.
But the Artic ice has been melting more rapidly than previous projections, and a huge piece of the Antartic ice shelf has fallen off far earlier than had been projected, leading scientists to rethink the acceptable level.
The problem with the 350ppm level is this -- we are already at 383 ppm, which means the actions needed to actually cut the carbon level would be much more drastic than those need just to slow the growth.
McKibben has moved from writer to global warming activist over the past few years, and has a new movement, www.350.org, aiming to spread the word on the tougher job he sees ahead.
What would the impact be of a sharp cut in carbon emissions? Higher prices are likely, for one. Also, more impetus for energy conservation. Either way, demand for petroleum-based fuels -- especially the more polluting versions -- should come under some pressure in the long run.
For now, though, it looks like the $20/b+ heating oil crack spread is here to stay.
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